Ebola update 20 Dec 2014

Exponential growth of Ebola cases has ended in October 2014 and became linear. It coincides with large efforts by president Obama to curb the epidemic and large media interest to it, which abruptly ended. It could mean two different scenarios:

а) The efforts in size of several billions of dollars and thousands of troops and foreign medics were enough to stop the exponential growth of the epidemic, but not the epidemic itself.

  1. b) The epidemic continues to grow exponentially maybe with longer doubling time but the media blackout prevents us from knowing about it.

Case A is better, but even in this situation Ebola may again return to exponential growth if it overcomes efforts. It in fact had happened ones in March 2014, when cases growth had declined probably because of sharp increase of local efforts. These local efforts were overwhelmed in summer 2014.

Now it is difficult to say if the new growth is exponential or linear. If it is exponential, its doubling time is 2-3 months. If global efforts will be overwhelmed, which could happen after certain threshold in cases than quick exponential growth will return.

Anyway Ebola is mild if we compare it with possible new fly pandemic or what I would name advance bioweapons based on synthetic biology – something as sophisticated as Staxnet or Sony hacker attack.

My older article about Ebola is here:

http://brighterbrains.org/articles/entry/does-the-ebola-virus-constitute-an-existential-risk

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